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Learning curveDon't expect immediate dividends from crop of rookie point guards
When Paul Silas expressed his reluctance to let LeBron James start the season at point guard, there was a mountain of evidence on his side. Lost in all the hype over the LeBron-Darko-Carmelo rookie class entering the league this year is the abundance of point guards who went in the first round of the draft. Including James, eight of the top 28 picks were point guards, and six them (James, T.J. Ford, Luke Ridnour, Marcus Banks, Troy Bell and Reece Gaines) were among the first 16 picks. But they won't produce results overnight. Whereas forwards and centers like Carmelo Anthony in Denver and Chris Kama with the Clippers have been able to cruise right into prominent spots in their team's rotations, the timeline for a rookie point guard is normally much slower. Last year, for instance, five point guards went in the first round -- Jay Williams, Dajuan Wagner, Jiri Welsch, Frank Williams and Dan Dickau. Williams was the only one who started right away, and by the end of the year he lost his job. The year before featured a better crop -- Raul Lopez, Jamaal Tinsley, Tony Parker and Gilbert Arenas -- but entering year three, none is considered a finished product. That's nothing unusual, however. Even if you look at the cream of the NBA crop, they struggled mightily in their rookie years. The chart below shows ten of the best point guards with at least four years of experience, and compares their rookie season to how they fared three-to-five years later once they'd learned the ropes.
As the group average at the bottom shows, the players nearly doubled their scoring output and handed out a third more assists, and did it with just a modest increase in turnovers. In fact, players like Jason Kidd, Chauncey Billups and Stephon Marbury committed fewer turnovers than in their rookie season despite taking on massively larger roles in their team's offenses. Yet that group wasn' t the only one who spent much of their rookie season firing bricks and throwing passes into row 17. Even among the all-time greats, there's an adjustment period. The next chart shows 10 of the best point guards of all time, and how they fared in their prime compared to their rookie seasons. What's shocking is how mediocre several of them were as rookies. Coming out of college, John Stockton and Kevin Johnson were backups, Gail Goodrich and Mark Price couldn't find the basket with a compass and three sherpas, and Clyde Frazier was some guy named Walt. The notable exceptions were Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson, who immediately started collecting triple-doubles, but even all-timers like Stockton and Isiah Thomas went through struggles while learning how to play the NBA point. Perhaps the most amazing example is Tiny Archibald, who in becoming the only player to lead the league in both scoring and assists in 1972-73, still managed to commit fewer turnovers than he did while cutting his teeth as a rookie.
Think about it. The players we looked at above are some of the greatest ever, and many of them still struggled during their rookie seasons. If we presume that most of the eight rookies in this year's point guard crop aren't among the greatest of all time, then they are facing a bigger challenge in their first pro season. Why do so many rookie point guards struggle? The answer lies in the additional responsibilities of the position. They can't just take care of their own business like the rookie forwards and centers do; they have to organize the offense for everyone else. That requires knowing where the coach wants the ball to go, and where all the other players are going to be moving. And that, in turn, takes time before it becomes second nature. In fact, one can argue this year's rookie point guards will be facing more obstacles than their predecessors. Most of the players on the list above played four years of college, and the few that didn't at least stuck around for a year or two so they were more mature when they came to the NBA. On the other hand, this year's crew includes James, who is straight out of high school. It includes Ford, who left school as a sophomore, and Ridnour, who left as a junior. It includes Planinc and Barbosa, who have yet to play on this contintent and are just a couple months older than Ford. But don't just take my word for it -- ask the voters. Since Robertson lapped the field to win the Rookie of the Year Award in 1960-61, just five point guards have won it outright: Ernie DiGregorio, Phil Ford, Mark Jackson, Allen Iverson and Damon Stoudamire. Two others -- Jason Kidd and Steve Francis -- shared it. One would expect one year in five to produce a Rookie of the Year point guard, but instead it's been five full and two half awards in 42 years, which is one in seven. So if you're looking for LeBron James, with no college experience and the burden of learning how to run the offense, to light up the sky as a rookie, the evidence suggests you'll be disappointed. He may have been chosen No. 1, but it should be a while before he's The Chosen One.
By John Hollinger, SI.com
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